About

The PROVIDE climate risk dashboard is an interactive online tool providing detailed information on different future global warming scenarios and expected impacts on the climate, natural, and human systems. The data covers indicators related to: climate variables and extreme events as well as oceanic habitability around the globe, and urban heat stress at city level. More data on cryosphere loss, permafrost melt, agriculture, economic loss etc., is planned to be added later.

We also include state-of-the-art assessments of overshoot scenarios - in which average global temperatures would temporarily ‘overshoot’ the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement - before being brought back down again. Overshoot scenarios are prominent in the latest IPCC reports, but the specific risks inherent to them, including potentially irreversible impacts (such as species extinction), have so far been under-researched.

Users are able to set risk thresholds for heat stress in cities, for example, heatwaves or extremely high temperature levels that should be avoided, and then access information on the emissions scenarios under which the selected threshold can be avoided, or not.

We are co-developing the PROVIDE climate risk dashboard with stakeholders such as adaptation practitioners and the dashboard will eventually feature information on how it has been used for adaptation planning in various contexts to promote knowledge exchange.

The development of the PROVIDE dashboard was led by Climate Analytics, with contributions from the PROVIDE consortium.

Project lead: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Tool development lead: Quentin Lejeune
Data analysis and back-end development: Niklas Schwind (lead), Andyara Callegare, Peter Pfleiderer, Sajid Ali, Sarah Schöngart, Shruti Nath
User engagement and testing: Inga Menke (lead), Burcu Yesil, Emily Theokritoff, Sylvia Schmidt
Design and web development: Jonas Parnow and Flavio Gortana
Modelling: Robin Lamboll, Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London); Yann Quilcaille, Jonas Schwaab, Sonia I. Seneviratne (ETH Zürich); Fabrice Lacroix, Thomas Frölicher (University of Bern); Niels Souverijns (VITO); Kam Lam Yeung, Chahan M. Kropf (ETH Zürich); Lilian Schuster, Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion (University of Insbruck); Jeff Price, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Rachel Warren (University of East Anglia)

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101003687.

The content of this website reflects only the authors' view, the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

The PROVIDE Dashboard, including all text, figures and data, is made available under a Creative Commons CC BY-SA licence “Attribution Share-Alike”, which allows others to freely build upon, enhance and reuse the works for any purposes without restriction under copyright or database law.

How to cite the tool:

Climate Analytics, 2022. PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard. Available at: https://climate-risk-dashboard.climateanalytics.org/

How to cite specific data presented on the tool:

• Scenario trajectories modelled with FaIR: Lamboll, R., Rogelj, J., & Schleussner, C. F. (2022). A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project. Earth and Space Science Open Archive.
• Temperature data modelled with MESMER: Schwaab et al., in preparation

We would like to thank the research team who have contributed to the development of the MESMER model used in the project. We would also like to thank the IPCC and scientists who contributed to scenario development as part of AR6 and CMIP6.

We would like to thank the stakeholders of the PROVIDE project for their input, reviews and feedback in the development of the tool.

The PROVIDE project aims to better understand and illustrate the potential environmental and economic impacts that would result from overshooting the 1.5°C temperature goal set out in the Paris Agreement, to better equip researchers and adaptation practitioners.

Moving beyond a limited set of climate scenarios, the PROVIDE approach will allow users to make impact thresholds the starting point for analysis and adaptation planning.

Climate Analytics is a non-profit climate science and policy institute based in Berlin, Germany with offices in New York, USA, Lomé, Togo and Perth, Australia. It seeks to empower those most vulnerable – Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries – to use the best science and analysis available in the international climate negotiations, as well as in developing policies and institutional capacity to adapt to climate change. Climate Analytics undertakes extensive research on the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement, evaluates progress on climate action and shows governments how they can act on their policies to keep global warming to this limit.